who will win the trophy?

Don’t miss our predictions for the Ballon d’Or 2024: check out the candidates and favourites for the title of best player in the world in both the men’s and women’s categories.

After missing out the year before, Lionel Messi won his eighth award last year, whilst  Aitana Bonmatí gave Spain its third consecutive Ballon d’Or in the women’s category. Who are the favourites for the Ballon d’Or 2024?

Ballon d’Or key points

• The award ceremony will take place on 28^th October.
• The ceremony will be hosted by Sandy Héribert and Didier Drogba.
• UEFA will co-organize the Ballon d’Or with France Football for the first time this year.
• The number of awards has been increased to ten to include the Men’s and Women’s coaches of the year.
• Since its inception in 1956, the 2020 edition was the only one not to take place due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ballon d’Or history

The Ballon d’Or was initially only awarded to players from Europe (from its first edition in 1956 until 1994). From 1995, it was widened to include players of any origin who had played for a European club. Then, from 2007, it was expanded further and became a global award.

Originally, the award was based on performance during a calendar year, but this was changed in 2022, and it is now determined based on a player’s performance during the previous season. The rules on voting have also been changed, with the current system allowing one journalist from each country in the top 100 of the FIFA Men’s World Ranking to cast a vote.

Ballon d’Or 2024 predictions

Over the years the trophy winner has not always been a popular decision, and for many years it seemed impossible to break dominance of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. From 2008 to 2017 it was only those two legends of the game that gained the prestige of being named the Ballon d’Or winner. In that 10-year period, they each won the trophy five times.

Last year Erling Haaland had a season he will find it hard to match, winning his second Golden Boot in the English Premier League, claiming the European Golden Shoe for 2022/23 and seeing his side, Manchester City, claim their fourth domestic league title. However, that was still not enough for the Norwegian to win the Ballon d’Or, as Messi once again took the trophy, despite playing the last half of 2023 with Inter Miami in America.

Luka Modrić (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022) are the only two players outside of Messi and Ronaldo to have won the trophy since 2008. However, this year will see a new name taking the biggest prize, as none of the last four winners were named in the 30 nominated players for 2024.

There are already indications of who is likely to be this year’s winner, as Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid is a strong favourite with the bookmakers. The Brazilian winger was a major part of Madrid’s Champions League success, having scored twice in the first leg of their semi-final against Bayern Munich and netted the second goal in their 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund in the final.

Vinícius Júnior started 2024 with a bang, joining an elite list of players to have scored a hattrick in El Clásico. That came in a 4-1 Spanish Super Cup victory in January and was also the fastest hattrick scored in that historic fixture. He scored his third goal in the 39^th minute of that match.

There are also two other Real Madrid players amongst the other main contenders. Jude Bellingham, who had a fantastic start with the Madrid side, both created chances and scored frequently in the early part of last season and is on the list. Defender Dani Carvajal is also to be considered, with the 32-year-old defender having scored the opening goal in the 2024 Champions League final and taken the man of the match award.

Manchester City’s Rodri had a fantastic season for the EPL title-winners, whilst prolific scorers Erling Haaland, Harry Kane and Lautaro Martínez all netted plenty of times for their teams over the last year. Kylian Mbappé is also sure to be player who contends for this trophy in years to come.

Who are the Ballon d’Or nominees?

The official list of nominees for the Ballon d’Or 2024 was announced on 4^th September 2024. The players nominated are:

Player	Club	Country
Jude Bellingham	Real Madrid	England
Hakan Çalhanoğlu	Inter	Turkey
Dani Carvajal	Real Madrid	Spain
Rúben Dias	Manchester City	Portugal
Artem Dovbyk	Girona	Ukraine
Phil Foden	Manchester City	England
Álex Grimaldo	Bayer Leverkusen	Spain
Erling Haaland	Manchester City	Norway
Mats Hummels	Borussia Dortmund	Germany
Harry Kane	Bayern Munich	England
Toni Kroos	Real Madrid	Germany
Ademola Lookman	Atalanta	Nigeria
Emiliano Martínez	Aston Villa	Argentina
Lautaro Martínez	Inter	Argentina
Kylian Mbappé	PSG / Real Madrid	France
Martin Ødegaard	Arsenal	Norway
Dani Olmo	RB Leipzig	Spain
Cole Palmer	Chelsea	England
Declan Rice	Arsenal	England
Rodri	Manchester City	Spain
Antonio Rüdiger	Real Madrid	Germany
Bukayo Saka	Arsenal	England
William Saliba	Arsenal	France
Federico Valverde	Real Madrid	Uruguay
Vinícius Júnior	Real Madrid	Spain
Vitinha	Paris Saint-Germain	Portugal
Nico Williams	Athletic Bilbao	Spain
Florian Wirtz	Bayer Leverkusen	Germany
Granit Xhaka	Bayer Leverkusen	Switzerland
Lamine Yamal	Barcelona	Spain

Who will win the Ballon d’Or?

When considering who may be voted the Ballon D’Or winner, you should bear in mind that not only club form is taken into account. A player’s performance for their national teams also plays a part, and those who do well for both their club and national side will have a better chance of winning the trophy.

Therefore, you should consider that, as well as the domestic leagues, 2024 also included a European Championship, in which Spain defeated England in the final. There was also a Copa América, where Argentina beat Colombia to take the trophy.

Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid & Brazil)

As mentioned previously, the betting suggests that the Brazilian already has one hand on the trophy. His performances for Real Madrid stand out above the other contenders, and he has already been named the UEFA Champions League Player of the Season for the 2023/24 competition. The only concern would be the performance of his national team. Brazil were eliminated at the quarter-final stage of the 2024 Copa América (although Vinícius Júnior missed that defeat through suspension) and are also currently in fourth place in the South American qualifying group for the 2026 World Cup.

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid & England)

The English midfielder’s debut season in LaLiga was outstanding. Although his performances over the last few months haven’t quite matched his excellent start to the season, Bellingham was key to Real Madrid’s success, and he was even fighting for the Pichichi (top scorer) award for a large part of the campaign. Although he lost in the Euro final with England, the midfielder is certain to feature in the Ballon d’Or for years to come.

Rodri (Manchester City & Spain)

The pivotal midfielder is a key player both for La Roja and the team considered by many as the best in the world, Manchester City. In 2024 he won the EPL title with City, whilst Spain were also victorious in the European Championship.

Lautaro Martínez (Inter & Argentina)

Argentinian Martínez has had a year to remember in 2024. His side, Inter, won the Serie A title by a wide margin, and he also topped the scoring charts, with his 24 goals scored being eight more than his closest rival. He was also instrumental in Argentina winning the Copa América, having scored the decisive goal in their 1-0 victory over Colombia in the final.

Kylian Mbappé (PSG/Real Madrid & France)

The Frenchman would surely have taken the Ballon d’Or title in 2022 had his side won the penalty shoot out in the World Cup final; however, his hattrick was ultimately in vain, as Argentina claimed the trophy. Mbappé moved from PSG to Real Madrid during 2024 and, although he was the top-scorer in Ligue 1, he was unable to lead PSG to European success. The average performance of France in Euro 2024 will not have helped his chances of winning his first Ballon d’Or.

Erling Haaland (Man. City & Norway)

The prolific scorer was fancied to win last year’s Ballon d’Or but, despite breaking all sorts of goalscoring records for Manchester City, the Norwegian found himself in second place behind Lionel Messi. Having set his standards so high in his debut EPL season, he has not been able to match his records from the previous campaign even though he has once again been scoring goals for fun this season. His City side were eliminated in the Champions League quarter-finals, and with a domestic defeat in the FA Cup final, his chances of winning the trophy this year are diminished.

Other leading candidates for the Ballon d’Or 2024

Apart from those players already highlighted, there are other interesting names in the running.

For example, other key players from Real Madrid’s season, such as Toni Kroos, who retired at the end of the last season, and Dani Carvajal, who was also an important part of Spain’s European Championship triumph with a man of the match performance in the final, could be worth noting.

Further down the list, you’ll find Harry Kane, the winner of the Golden Shoe 2023-2024 in his first season in Germany with 36 goals, and Florian Wirtz, one of the main stars of Bayer Leverkusen’s historic double. The latter is nominated alongside his teammates Alejandro Grimaldo, who was also part of Spain’s successful Euro side, and Granit Xhaka.

How about goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez? His Aston Villa side qualified for the main European club competition for the first time since 1983, whilst the enigmatic Argentinian also kept a clean sheet as his national side defeated Colombia 1-0 in the Copa América final.

When is the Ballon d’Or 2024 taking place?

The Ballon d’Or 2024 ceremony takes place on Monday 28^th October at the Théâtre Châtelet in Paris.

Who is hosting the Ballon d’Or 2024?

The awards ceremony will be hosted by Sandy Héribert and Didier Drogba. They have co-hosted each Ballon d’Or ceremony since 2019.

Sandy Héribert is a French-British TV journalist, show host and presenter. Heribert currently works for French media channel France 2 and L’Équipe. Didier Drogba had a long career in elite football, most notably for Chelsea in the EPL and for his home nation, the Ivory Coast.

Ballon d’Or 2024 voting system

The list of 30 candidates for the Ballon d’Or was drawn up by the France Football magazine, which organises the gala and presents the award. Once the list has been drawn up, a committee of 100 sports journalists from FIFA’s 100 top-ranked member nations is responsible for voting, awarding 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 points to their five chosen candidates, based on the following criteria: level of play, goals scored, assists, titles won and how they present themselves on the pitch.

2024 Ballon d’Or Gala Awards

The list of awards at the Ballon d’Or ceremony has been expanded this year with the merger of France Football and UEFA. In addition to the eight awards that were customary until last year, the Men’s Coach and Women’s Coach of the Year awards will be added this year, bringing the total number of awards to ten.

• Men’s Ballon d’Or
• Women’s Ballon d’Or
• Kopa Trophy
• Yashin Trophy
• Gerd Müller Trophy
• Sócrates Award
• Men’s Club of the Year
• Women’s Club of the Year
• Men’s Coach of the Year
• Women’s Coach of the Year

Although several of the awards are self-explanatory, the other awards are decided on the following basis:

• Kopa Trophy —presented to the best performing player worldwide under the age of 21
• Yashin Trophy —presented to the best performing goalkeeper
• Gerd Müller Trophy —presented to the highest-scoring footballer for the previous season, taking into account goals scored for both clubs and national teams
• Sócrates Award —presented to the footballer considered to have done the best humanitarian work worldwide

Who are the top Ballon d’Or winners?

• Lionel Messi: eight trophies (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2023)
• Cristiano Ronaldo: five trophies (2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017)
• Michel Platini: three trophies (1983, 1984, 1985)
• Johan Cruyff: three trophies (1971, 1973, 1974)
• Marco van Basten: three trophies (1988, 1989, 1992)
• Franz Beckenbauer: two trophies (1972, 1976)
• Ronaldo: two trophies (1997, 2002)
• Alfredo Di Stéfano: two trophies (1957, 1959)
• Kevin Keegan: two trophies (1978, 1979)
• Karl-Heinz Rummenigge: two trophies (1980, 1981)

Five previous men’s Ballon d’Or results

2018	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Luka Modrić	Real Madrid	753
Second	Cristiano Ronaldo	Juventus	476
Third	Antoine Grizmann	Atlético Madrid	414

2019	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Lionel Messi	Barcelona	686
Second	Virgil van Dijk	Liverpool	679
Third	Cristiano Ronaldo	Juventus	476

2021	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Lionel Messi	Paris Saint-Germain	613
Second	Robert Lewandowski	Bayern Munich	580
Third	Jorginho	Chelsea	460

2022	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Karim Bezema	Real Madrid	549
Second	Sadio Mané	Bayern Munich	193
Third	Kevin De Bruyne	Manchester City	175

2023	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Lionel Messi	Inter Miami	462
Second	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	357
Third	Kylian Mbappé	Paris Saint-Germain	270

Clubs whose players have won the Ballon d’Or the most times

• Barcelona: twelve trophies
• Real Madrid: twelve trophies
• Milan: eight trophies
• Juventus: eight trophies
• Bayern Munich: five trophies
• Manchester United: four trophies

Ballon d’Or—women’s category

To mark the growth of women’s football, France Football introduced the award for the best female footballer in the world in 2018. Five editions have already been held, with Spanish football dominating the last three awards thanks to the triumphs of the Barcelona stars Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmatí. Both players are also in the running for the title this year.

Barcelona provided the first two players for the 2021 awards, the winner of the 2022 award and the first and third placed women in last year’s Ballon d’Or. The Catalan side have eight nominations among the thirty players for this year’s awards.

The full list of women’s Ballon d’Or nominations

Player	Club	Country
Barbra Banda	Orlando Pride	Zambia
Aitana Bonmatí	Barcelona	Spain
Lucy Bronze	Barcelona	England
Mariona Caldentey	Barcelona	Spain
Tabitha Chawinga	Lyon	Malawi
Grace Geyoro	Paris Saint-Germain	France
Manuela Giugliano	Roma	Italy
Caroline Graham Hansen	Barcelona	Norway
Patricia Guijarro	Barcelona	Spain
Giulia Gwinn	Bayern Munich	Germany
Yui Hasegawa	Manchester City	Japan
Ada Hegerberg	Lyon	Norway
Lauren Hemp	Manchester City	England
Lindsey Horan	Lyon	United States
Lauren James	Chelsea	England
Marie-Antoinette Katoto	Paris Saint-Germain	France
Alyssa Naeher	Chicago Red Stars	United States
Sjoeke Nüsken	Chelsea	Germany
Ewa Pajor	Barcelona	Poland
Salma Paralluelo	Barcelona	Spain
Gabi Portilho	Corinthians	Brazil
Alexia Putellas	Barcelona	Spain
Mayra Ramírez	Chelsea	Colombia
Trinity Rodman	Washington Spirit	United States
Lea Schüller	Bayern Munich	Germany
Khadija Shaw	Manchester City	Jamaica
Sophia Smith	Portland Thorns	United States
Mallory Swanson	Chicago Red Stars	United States
Tarciana	Houston Dash	Brazil
Glódís Viggósdóttir	Bayern Munich	Iceland

Previous women’s Ballon d’Or results

2018	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Ada Hegerberg	Lyon	136
Second	Pernille Harder	Wolfsburg	130
Third	Dzsenifer Marozsán	Lyon	86

2019	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Megan Rapinoe	Seattle Reign	230
Second	Lucy Bronze	Lyon	94
Third	Alex Morgan	Orlando Pride	68

2021	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Alexia Putellas	Barcelona	186
Second	Jennifer Hermoso	Barcelona	84
Third	Sam Kerr	Chelsea	46

2022	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Alexia Putellas	Barcelona	178
Second	Beth Mead	Arsenal	152
Third	Sam Kerr	Chelsea	74

2023	Player	Club	Points
Winner	Aitana Bonmatí	Barcelona	266
Second	Sam Kerr	Chelsea	87
Third	Salma Paralluelo	Barcelona	49

2024 Kopa Trophy Nominations

Player	Club	Country
Pau Cubarsí	Barcelona	Spain
Alejandro Garnacho	Manchester United	Argentina
Arda Güler	Real Madrid	Turkey
Karim Konaté	Red Bull Salzburg	Ivory Coast
Kobbie Mainoo	Manchester United	England
João Neves	Benfica	Portugal
Savinho	Girona	Brazil
Mathys Tel	Bayern Munich	France
Lamine Yamal	Barcelona	Spain
Warren Zaïre-Emery	Paris Saint-Germain	France

2024 Yashin Trophy Nominations

Player	Club	Country
Diogo Costa	Porto	Portugal
Gianluigi Donnarumma	Paris Saint-Germain	Italy
Gregor Kobel	Borussia Dortmund	Switzerland
Andriy Lunin	Real Madrid	Ukraine
Mike Maignan	Milan	France
Giorgi Mamardashvili	Valencia	Georgia
Emiliano Martínez	Aston Villa	Argentina
Unai Simón	Athletic Bilbao	Spain
Yann Sommer	Inter Milan	Switzerland
Ronwen Williams	Mamelodi Sundowns	South Africa

2024 Men’s Club of the Year Nominations

2024 Women’s Club of the Year Nominations

Club	Country
Barcelona	Spain
Chelsea	England
Lyon	France
NJ/NY Gotham	United States
Paris Saint-Germain	France

2024 Men’s Coach of the Year Nominations

Coach	Team	Country
Xabi Alonso	Bayer Leverkusen	Spain
Carlo Ancelotti	Real Madrid	Spain
Luis de la Fuente	Spain	Spain
Gian Piero Gasperini	Atalanta	Italy
Pep Guardiola	Manchester City	Spain
Lionel Scaloni	Argentina	Argentina

2024 Women’s Coach of the Year Nominations

Coach	Team	Country
Sonia Bompastor	Lyon	France
Arthur Elias	Corinthians / Brazil	Brazil
Jonatan Giráldez	Barcelona	Spain
Emma Hayes	Chelsea / United States	England
Filipa Patão	Benfica	Portugal
Sarina Wiegman	England	Netherlands

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